A recent video by the macrocycle analysis channel, The Chart Guys, hosted by crypto Youtuber Jason Pizzino, offered an extensive examination of historical cycles in stocks, real estate, and bitcoin (BTC).
The analyst provided intriguing insights into possible market trends in six to twelve months. The video explored the influence of bitcoin on the global economy, pondering whether it is driving market shifts or the other way around.
The role of timing in the global market was a significant theme in the discussion. The video pointed out that stock market lows have historically tended to occur in October and March. Many prolonged bear markets – a general decline in the stock market over some time – reached their lowest points around these months.
However, 483 days into the bear market that began after the market’s peak in January 2018, the prediction for another stock market low in October appears low. As pointed out in the video, bear markets generally do not provide multiple chances for October lows. Markets typically take no longer than 10 months from their highest to their lowest point. By comparison, the global financial crisis had its first significant low 13 months from the top, with the final low coming 17 months later.
The channel also addressed the pattern of bitcoin’s six-month cycles. After just experiencing the first of these, where bitcoin moved from its low to a fresh high, it is anticipated to continue its upward trend in the next six-month period, potentially mirroring the movements of the S&P 500.
When analyzing the macrocycle of bitcoin and the stock market, the channel suggests focusing on the current second period of the market, which is currently in an accumulation phase. Drawing parallels with the previous cycle in 2019, which experienced range-bound activity in the second six months following a robust initial six months of accumulation, the speaker expects a similar trend – consolidation followed by an upward movement.
Investors seeking all-time bitcoin highs might need to be patient, as the prediction is that this breakthrough may not occur until the fourth period. Furthermore, the window between the fourth and sixth months tends to be a bustling time as retailers enter the market.
On another note, while the S&P 500 has demonstrated clean upward movements, the bitcoin market’s earlier drastic upward swings, such as going from one cent to $32, are deemed less likely to recur. Instead, investors should keep an eye on the S&P 500’s trajectory, as its breakout from all-time highs could be a precursor to bitcoin testing its highs.
According to technical analyst Michael van de Poppe, bitcoin and the S&P 500 may test their all-time highs within 12 months. Van de Poppe sees a third six-month period, leading up to the first half of 2024, as a potential breakout to the top for bitcoin. However, he also cautions that the next six months could entail more consolidation than outright bullish moves.
The video explores the possibility of current market lows being the start of a new macrocycle for both bitcoin and the S&P 500. As market dynamics shift, seeing how these predictions play out will be intriguing. The Chart Guys channel promises to monitor any changes or early developments closely. As always, market participants are advised to undertake their research and due diligence before making investment decisions.